LAS VEGAS--The $2,000 car navigation system is dead (except at the high end). Price pressure from portable navigation devices will force embedded car navigation prices down to $1,000 and even less in entry level cars. That's one of the top themes underscored at a car technology conference, the Consumer Telematics Seminar, here at the back-end of CES (but unrelated to the Consumer Electronics Show).

"The luxury segment can still support $2,000 navigation ... because it includes infotainment, voice [recognition], Bluetooth, advanced video, even vehicle backup," says Phil Magney, principle analyst at Telematics Research Group. "For the midrange [car], to be competitive, you have to have a sub-$1,000 solution that couples navigation [with] Bluetooth, hands-free voice input, audio device connectors or USB, possibly real-time traffic and digital/satellite radio. The entry level may be built into the head unit (radio) or have limited graphics." Most new car navigation systems today cost $1,500 to $2,000; the ones that cost less are in cars that already have an included LCD screen.

After the jump are some of the top trends based on what I saw at CES and then heard underscored by Magney and others at the seminar.

1. Cheaper navigation. $2,000 at the high end, $1,000 mid-range cars, below $500 or embedded into the car. Charge more, and buyers will go to PNDs. Maybe they will anyhow.

2. Universal Bluetooth. "It's just a matter of time until Bluetooth is standard equipment on every car," says Magney. In the meantime, automakers who don't offer it as an option "are leaving money on the table."

3. Inroads for Sync. GM chairman Rick Wagoner was the first keynote speaker at CES from an automaker, but lots of people were talking about Ford's free Sync USB-Bluetooth adapter ($395 on middle trim-lines).

"Things started to change over the holidays with the [Ford / Microsoft Sync] advertisements" that hype Sync's voice recognition, said an admiring Hakan Kostepen, of Panasonic's Advanced Product Development Group. Ford got more mileage with its CES announcement of 911 Assist, a free Mayday calling feature.

4. Return of embedded car phones. Sync's use of the Bluetooth phone in your pocket is a short-term aberration (and also a smart move), says TRG's Magney. Longer term, virtually every car will have an embedded communications device, possibly a phone with voice capability and possibly a data-only device that won't cost $10 to $20 a month, the way a voice-capable device does.

5. Recurring revenue from merchants' and motorists' pocketbooks. A combination of two-way links and location-based services can report where you are, as well as find gas stations, restaurants, and shops. Knowing about you has merchants salivating and willing to pay to reach you.

Or as was noted by Duncan Bennett, Strategic Market Manager of Ramtron, "Facebook got to be worth $15 billion because of the targeted advertising possibilities." The same value might accrue to services reaching into the car, so long as they don't (as Facebook did) annoy memers. Merchants will pay to reach you, but you'll pay to download movies or music to the car.

6. The car as Big Brother. Again, with two-way communications, your car can report your position. This enables pay-as-you-go car insurance and teen tracking; GM's OnStar now slows down vehicles that have been reported stolen. Not everyone is thrilled.

"Privacy is something people don't like to lose," said Dr. Kal Mos, engineering director for Mercedes-Benz R&D in North America.

"We at BMW have not said you can breadcrumb [track] your car," added Fran Dance. "It's a slippery slope: pay-as-you-go insurance ... teen tracking ... on the marital disputes front is where we get nervous."

7. Cellphone car telemetry. Your phone will be a gateway to your car when you're not inside it, with lock/unlock features, remote start in cold and hot climates, and vehicle condition reports. Delphi showed an iPhone connected via Bluetotoh to a long-range key remote that controls the car; future phones will talk to it directly.

8. More forms of in-car wireless. Intel demonstrated a working prototype of WiMax, which has the potential to compete with cellphone data protocols. Sprint plans a spring rollout. If nothing else, WiMax will help reduce the cost of cellular data plans.

9. The cellphone as navigation device. No matter cheap PNDs becomes, it's hard to make them cheaper than the cellphones we already have. The majority of phones will have navigation capabilities by the end of the decade. Prices will probably have to drop from $10 to $5 a month for the service.

10. Ongoing updates sent to your car. The navigation system on many cars provides "much less [functionality than what you] could get on a Garmin or TomTom," says Intel's Tom Steenman, VP of the Digital Enterprise Group, because "it was designed 3 to 4 years ago."

Cars with embedded navigation will need ongoing updates to maps, POIs, and interfaces--sent wirelessly--to stay competitive. A fat pipe could download songs and videos at night or as you drive; teens wonder why they can't get satellite video rather than just radio. At some point, automakers will use the data pipe to update the car's engine controls. It could be over cellular, WiMax, satellite, or HD Radio.