I agree with most of this, though due the BR player being embedded in the PS3 all the people arn't buying them for Blu-ray movie watching. Though the point could still be made, just in a different since. Due to the PS3 doubling for Blu-ray games, if the movie part fails then the system will still exist with games... soo why stop making movies when there are still people with the player. though don't underestimate the power of cheap! It controls all!

WELL SAID!!! I agree 100% with this article. Blu-ray will prevail!

Blu Ray isn't going to become much more than a storage medium. You Blu Ray goofs need to stop counting on Hollywoods support, "Flip flopping" is what Hollywood execs do best. Blu Ray is too damn expensive, the name itself confuses the hell out of average folks and with compitition from HD and download services, Blu Ray is done... Think I'm kidding, here's a test. Go to Sear's walk up to a couple and ask about home entertainment, remember it has to be a couple, mention that a Blu Ray player is $1000.00 and watch closely at the reaction of the female. Like my wife said so eloquantly at Wal_Mart the other day when she saw the Price of the PS3, "anyone that would pay $600 for a console is ROCK STUPID..."

Good Luck with your Blu Ray format.....

^^^^^^^^^^^ your wife is a cheap a$$ who is she to justify how people spend their money and who actually goes to Sears these days to purchase electronics!!

I bought a new Toshiba a2 to go with my new 37" Polaroid LCD...I couldnt be happier. The picture is crystal clear and like all the experts say there is no viewable difference between 1080i and 1080p. Everyone has raved about the HD DVD Toshiba image quality and why pay 500 dollars more for a system that is going extinct.Bill Gates is backing HD DVD and thats all you need to know. The reason HD DVD is going to win is that people want the most bang for the buck. Dont get me wrong I like Sony stuff but Im not going to throw money away. I also bought a monster HDMI cable for 100 bucks...now Im set. People think it over before you do it and read all the reviews online.Just google 1080i vc 1080 p and read for yourself.

I agree very much with this article. The thing that bothers most with HD dvd enthusiasts is that they always associate it with sony. Don't forget it isn't just sony who is invested in bluray, Philips, Panasonic, and Samsung are all invested. As well Apple, Disney, and a few others are supporting it.

"I agree very much with this article. The thing that bothers most with HD dvd enthusiasts is that they always associate it with sony. Don't forget it isn't just sony who is invested in bluray, Philips, Panasonic, and Samsung are all invested. As well Apple, Disney, and a few others are supporting it."

Dont forget Dell! Just wait until they start to include Bluray drives with all their computers.

In my opinion HDD-DVD lost the war the day the 360 shipped without it.

The 1080i vs 1080p myth debunked. Many of the Blu Ray people are all impressed with the 1080p format...heres some good info.

"Below is Evan Powell's (Projector Central) appraisal of the 1080i vs 1080p controversy.

"The truth is this: The Toshiba HD-DVD player outputs 1080i, and the Samsung Blu-ray player outputs both 1080i and 1080p. What they fail to mention is that it makes absolutely no difference which transmission format you use--feeding 1080i or 1080p into your projector or HDTV will give you the exact same picture. Why? Both disc formats encode film material in progressive scan 1080p at 24 frames per second. It does not matter whether you output this data in 1080i or 1080p since all 1080 lines of information on the disc are fed into your video display either way. The only difference is the order in which they are transmitted. If they are fed in progressive order (1080p), the video display will process them in that order. If they are fed in interlaced format (1080i), the video display simply reassembles them into their original progressive scan order. Either way all 1080 lines per frame that are on the disc make it into the projector or TV. The fact is, if you happen to have the Samsung Blu-ray player and a video display that takes both 1080i and 1080p, you can switch the player back and forth between 1080i and 1080p output and see absolutely no difference in the picture. So this notion that the Blu-ray player is worth more money due to 1080p output is nonsense."

the reality is that both formats will survive. ever hear of VCD? VCDs came out before DVDs. DVDs are way better, more storage, better quality, etc., etc., etc. but that didn't make VCDs go away. both formats will fill the appropriate niche based on price.

I'm waiting for Apple to build "SuperDuperDrives" into their hardware so I can read/write BluRay and HD-DVD discs...

This format war is really only beginning to heat up. Yes, the Toshiba is cheaper, but they are subsidizing about $275 per unit in an attempt to flood the market. Their better quality, more technically equal model to Blu-ray, the XA-2, is going to cost $1000. Despite Blu-ray's delay into the market, and its higher cost, it has actually kept toe-to-toe with HD DVD, and has narrowed the gap over the past couple of months. If the dual-format players do eventually come out, it resolves the studio difference. We will see what happens when the recorders hit the street. Like many people, I want storage capacity, fewer discs, coupled with crossover to the PC, and HD DVD just doesn't cut it.

Agree. Blu-ray will win. And it should because is has more of everything. I mean why wold anyone need hd dvd when Blu-ray can have 2-3 hd dvds in one disk for less the price?

The only major support hd dvd has going for it is toshiba and xbox fanboys. I think blu-ray is going to win...

Well if Sonys not careful Microsoft and Bill Gates might just buy them and turn them into a HD DVD company....lol....to make a long story short its in the name...Blu ray just sounds funky.

let's see, Lance and Dvorak are misguided bloviators, yet a guy at Slate, who thinks we'll be delivering 50gigabyte movies over broadband (slower than Netflix by my calculations), and believes that the HD delivered by Comcast is acceptable, is someone you respect. And gosh, I sure have seen a lot of consumer electronic devices with plug in slots for hard drives!!!!

As for format wars and capacity, remember those LS-120 and super floppy drives from years past. Last I checked, the good old 1.44 floppy was still standard in most computers (well, those that have floppys)..

Besides that, you make some compelling arguments. Although I'm still hoping for combo drives to make the whole war thing obsolete...

The best bet, from where I sit, is to get a nice upscaling DVD player for around $100 and let the wars rage on around you...

Steve, funny how you don't want to throw money away but you just spent $100 on an HDMI cable you could have gotten for $6 at Monoprice or less than $20 at Fry's. Bill Gates' backing means very, very little; Microsoft has a huge number of failed products, and would have many more if they weren't willing to spend billions on losing technology (WinCE, Zune, etc.) until it finally outspends the competition into submission.

The Toshiba A2 is good value at $499. The only problem is HD-DVD is already at its capacity limit, and propping up a format which is maxed out the year it's released is foolhardy. Blu-ray was designed to take us a decade forward, with Blu-ray camcorders, Blu-ray storage on PC's and Macs, and better interactivity. HD-DVD is "good enough" today, but not for tomorrow.

blu-ray is already and old format. Mpeg-2 (used on blu-ray) is a 10 year old compression whereas VC-1 (used on hd-dvds) is brand new and makes much better picture quality with less the space. In every reveiw i about movies released on both formats is that hd-dvd is better looking than blu-ray. Also, a big reason VHS beat betamax all those years ago is that VHS was cheaper. Sure betamax had better picture quality buy VHS was less expensive to make. hd-dvd is both less expensive and better quality than blu-ray. Yet another reason hd-dvd is better is because of a man - Peter Jackson - director of the best selling movies of our time - The Lord of the Rings. With Bill Gates and Peter Jackson both backing hd-dvd, blu-ray doesnt have a chance.

I'm a dumbass Blu-ray fanboy and even I know that this format war isn't anywhere close to over.

Yes, ill admit it, Blu-ray has a bigger storage capacity. But do you know why Blu-ray has a bigger storage capacity? Because their codec is worse and they need that much space to fit a single Blu-ray movie. On the other hand, an HD DVD (which uses the VC1 codec) stores the same movie, in the same resolution, in less space. So i fail to see how the fact that Blu-ray has more space (25GB BR vs. 15GB HDDVD on the single layer) is going to affect the situation at all. If anything, this means HD DVD is better. The discs are cheaper and easier to make, the players are less expensive and your high definition movie is still there, just stored in a smaller place.

Just for kicks, id like to take a look back at Sony's other media attempts from the past, and see if this doesnt tell us something about whats going to happen in the Blu-ray HD DVD war.

Beta did okay, until VHS came along. And we all know the tremendous success of the MiniDisc and the UMD movie (sarcasm).

Im willing to bet most of you havent even heard of the atrac3 file type. This was Sony's feeble attempt at creating their own type of audio file. The funny thing is, they dont seem to be around at all. Atrac3 got trumped by the MP3. Im willing to guess you have heard of that.

And of course Sony continues to brag about the PS3 plays Blu-Ray. Whoop-de-freakin-do. That sounds like a great solution if you want to waste the life of your game laser watching Blu-ray movies.

Dont have a PS3? Well then, if you want to watch Blu-ray, you better save up for a while, because Blu-ray players are not so cheap. (Try $1000 dollars)

If you have an xbox 360, you can buy an HDDVD player for it for only $200. It simply plugs into your 360 via USB, and voila, HD movie.

If you dont have an xbox 360, you shoulg get one. You can get a premium system at Microcenter right now for $300, after $100 mail-in rebate.

Otherwise, standalone HD DVD players are around $500.

Anyway, i guess my point is that while Blu-ray has more storage capacity, this doesnt mean anything to the movie world. Blu-ray is also more expensive, and Sony hasnt had the best of luck creating their own media in the past anyway.

So please, for everyone's sale, go with HDDVD. Dont get ripped off by Blu-Ray.

I agree that most people are misinformed about Bluray. Sony just invested in all new MPEG2 authoring equipment for BD because they plan on releasing all their movies in MPEG2. They are pressuring all their exclusive partners to do the same. MPEG2 requires qbout 3X the storage space compared to VC-1, which has been used on about every HD-DVD (a few had MPEG4). So that 50 GB Bluray discs holds the same amount of content as 17 GB on a HD-DVD disc. So a 30 GB HD-DVD disc can hold almost twice as much content as a 50 GB Bluray disc. To me, that makes Bluray seriously inferior.

The reason for this is that Microsoft gets the lion's share (70-80%) of licensing money for using the VC-1 codec, which MS is the majority owner. It isn't alot of money this year, but in the next couple of years, Microsoft could potentially make $28 million a year from VC-1, just for movies. Sony sees MS as a competitor, so they view using VC-1 as giving money to the enemy to use against them. So Sony doesn't want anyone to use VC-1. Even if they switch temporarily to compete against HD-DVD, you can be sure that if they won the war, they would then switch back to MPPEG2. So a vote for Bluray is a vote to support old technology.

I would also like to throw in the Sony Memory Stick as another failed Sony format. Everyone went with SD memory and left the memory stick in the dust. Sony has unofficially moved on, phasing out the Memory Stick. New camcorders from Sony are leaving out the Memory Stick slot and some prototypes are equipped with SD slots. Sony also created the SACD format, which was been less popular than DVD-Audio (but neither has done that well). SACD was brought to market about the same time as MP3, and consumers have flocked to MP3, which quality wise, is inferior to MP3 in every way.

Sony also developed SDDS multi-channel digital sound format for theatres, which since its creation has been trounced by Dolby Digital and DTS. Also the SDDS has a data rate of 2.2 Mb/s and Dolby Dgital only has .37 Mb/s. So even though SDDS has superior data capacity, it is being trounced by Dolby. So without beating a dead horse any further, Sony has one of the worst track records of introducing new technology formats.

Blueray is not going to win. It will also not go away. Sony can try to advertise the advantages of 1080P all they want but you can't really see a diff unless you are looking at a 80-100" monitor. And I find it hard to believe that the average Joe consumer will spend more for HD then they have to. Sony would have to pay off Best Buy executives to make their puppets in the blue shirts and yellow name tags tell the know nothings who shop there to buy Blueray. Sorry, you are wrong.

Ok some people here are misinformed, both HD-DVD and Bluray are capable of playing MPEG-2, H.264 aka MPEG-4 AVC (part 10, when XviD and DivX are part 2 i think) and also Microsoft SMPTE VC-1, so they don't have to pay MS to use H.264 (both VC-1 and H.265 are MPEG-4 codecs).

Quote from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blu-ray_Disc :

"For video, ISO MPEG-2, H.264/AVC, and SMPTE VC-1 are player-mandatory. (This means all BD-ROM players must be capable of decoding all three video codecs.) MPEG-2 video allows decoder backward compatibility for DVDs. H.264, sometimes called MPEG-4 part 10, is a more recent video codec. VC-1 is a competing MPEG-4 derivative codec proposed by Microsoft (based on Microsoft's previous work in Windows Media 9). BD-ROM titles with video must store video using one of the three mandatory codecs (multiple codecs on a single title are legal).

Initial versions of Sony's Blu-ray Disc-authoring software only included support for MPEG-2 video, so the initial Blu-ray Discs were forced to use MPEG-2 rather than the newer codecs, VC-1 and H.264. An upgrade was subsequently released supporting the newer compression methods so the second wave of Blu-ray Disc titles were able to make use of this. The choice of codecs affects disc cost (due to related licensing/royalty payments) as well as program capacity. The two more advanced video codecs can typically achieve twice the video runtime of MPEG-2. When using MPEG-2, quality considerations would limit the publisher to around two hours of high-definition content on a single-layer (25 GB) BD-ROM."

I think "bloviating" is my new favorite word.

There is no doubt that Blu-Ray will win, eventually, there is too much weight behind it, and it's technically a better format. There will be losers, HD-DVD owners who are left high and dry, these are the ones posting anti-Blu-Ray and PS3 posts, in a desperate attempt to keep the HD-DVD format from dying..

Any medium which is cheaper and higher quality will prevail - Blu-ray is too expensive (drives, players and games consoles) and movies poorer quality than HD-DVD. The buzz is all for Xbox 360 + the HDDVD add-on ratehr than the PS3 and Blur-ray

Guy should have done some research. His story is old... too old.
Capacity doesn't matter. HD DVD uses more advanced codecs and has advanced audio.

Did I mention better product and more affordable.

HD DVD is winning and will continue to wint this war.

Interesting arguments. But I feel it is important to correct a error in the Original Post by Dan Costa that seems so pervasively accepted as true. Blu Ray does NOT currently have a Capacity Advantage over HD-DVD. If you carefully examine Specifications for both Formats, you will see that Blu Ray is only capable of single sided disks. So taking the example of a Single Layer disk first, Blu Ray can offer up to 25 gb on a single layer disk, HD-DVD can offer 30 gb on a single layer disk (15 gb on side 1 + 15 gb on side 2). Same hold true for double layer, where Blu Ray limited to 1 side at 50 gb cannot match HD-DVD's 2 sided double layer's 60 gb. That by the way is why HD-DVD Combo disks are possible and Blu-Ray not possible.
The preceding is offered as facts to assist readers to understand the format and NOT to argue who will win this. Having corrected this error, I'll also tell you that a few other factors not yet mentioned ought to be considered in forming your opinion of who will win.
1. HP (the top PC maker) despite being a Founding Blu Ray company and on the BD Group has just announced a $100 HD DVD add on to the PCs.
2. Apple, another founding member and on the BD Group announced that their next Operating System AND their immensely popular software (for video editing etc) Final Cut Pro will both have native Support for HD-DVD.
3. Several films that are currently ONLY in release in North America from one of the Exclusive Blu-ray supporting Studios are being released by companies who have foreign distrib rights in Europe on HD-DVD and these can easily be played by North American HD DVD players
4. Ipsos Vantis and several other Research companies who have done Research Polling have ALL noted that their research results put HD-DVD at a distinct advantage over Blu Ray in leading the Format War to the end.

It may very well not be North America that totally determines the outcome. If, for example, as seems quite likely from all the rumblings coming down the wires, the Taiwanese and Chinese factories start embracing HD-DVD this will result in a flood of inexpensive players (likely in the $150 to $300 range) that will all but assure a victory in the average consumer's mind that they should buy into HD DVD instead of Blu Ray.

I'm trying to look at this issue as dispassionately as possible, but each time I try to see reasons Blu Ray should triumph, I come up empty.

Dan!? What have you done?! O_O

Why is that the only people that support Blu Ray are the people that own neither format? Or don't even own an HDTV?

Wassn't Beta better than VHS?

Remember, I didn't say run out and buy it. Just that eventually, Blu-ray will prevail.

Also, there is a lot of discussion about Codecs, but remember these dics pretty much use the same Av codecs. The studios don't always invest enought time and effort in the transfers, but in my tests HD-DVD and Blu-ray video is pretty comparable.

Of course, you can fit more on a Blu-ray disc, but I don't want to rub it in...

[QUOTE]
Posted by: Mike
December 17, 2006 8:30 PM
Any medium which is cheaper and higher quality will prevail - Blu-ray is too expensive (drives, players and games consoles) and movies poorer quality than HD-DVD. The buzz is all for Xbox 360 + the HDDVD add-on ratehr than the PS3 and Blur-ray
[/QUOTE]

Sorry to piss on your bonfire but the ps3 with its bluray drive has outsold the hddvd addon 5:1

"The PlayStation 3 has thus far sold out of every unit it has shipped, a total of 197,000 units compared to the HD DVD add-on drive which has sold through 42,000 units."
Found from a website through google news - sci/tech

I like both formats alot, one is cheaper, the other one has more capasity. I own a few blue ray dvds myself with my ps3. I find it interesting that most sony media stuff failed like the memory stick and the umd for the psp, remember the betamax? It would be nice if they would win this one, I meant don't you just like saying blue ray? It sounds good and makes me want to buy it, over hd, dvd. I still like the excellent tranfer on hd dvd, but there is no way i'm going to miss out of certain studio movies just for that. I don't know, time will tell, it's not the efficiency, even with mpeg-2, using higher bitrates could give good results, at the end of the day they both are hd and both offer great quality compared to dvds.

Well,

There goes more mis-information, both from posters and from the author of the article.

Blu-ray discs only have more capacity if you make a single-sided comparison. Also, because of managment decisions at Sony to use the old MPEG2 codec and BD exclusive discs, they actually hold less content on that single side. Of course, management at Sony could change their mind, which would allow BD to then hold more content. But it would require them to make the decision to give one of their biggest competitors upwards of $26 million a year to use to compete against them. I don't see Sony making this decision anytime soon, so for the time being, Sony is consiously deciding to make their product inferior in the amount of content their discs hold.

Also, BD only allows for a single sided disc. The current players can only read two layers, for a total of 50 GB of capacity on a single disc. Sony is working on the development of a disc that can have four layers on one side (read "in development"), for a total of 100 GB on a single disc. However, Sony acknowledges that current BD players would likely not be able to read these discs, so if they were to use them for TV seasons, etc, anyone that wanted those discs would have to buy a new player to use them. So for all practical purposes, for the next 2-3 years, 50 GB is Blu-ray's top capacity.

Now, HD-DVD is a two-sided, two-layered disc. Each layer had a 15 GB capacity, which means 30 GB per side, or a total of 60 GB possible per disc. So actually, a HD-DVD disc has more storage capacity on a single disc than Blu-ray currently has. Toshiba also is developing a method to put three layers on each side, upping their capacity to 90 GB total per disc. Again, new players would be required to read these triple layer discs. Again, that is at least 2-3 years down the road.

So the author is wrong in his statement that a Blu-ray disc has a higher maximum capacity than a HD-DVD. Currently, HD-DVD can have up to 60 GB on a single disc, where Blue-ray maxes out at 50 GB. The advantage Sony has is that all their data can be accessed without flipping the disc. So in the future, BD discs may have seasons with Episodes 1-20 without flipping, where Hd-DVD has 1-10 and 11-20 with a disc flip.

Finally, the sales numbers for the Xbox HD-DVD addon were only for the period of Nov. 8 through Nov. 25. The Sony numbers were from Nov. 17th to Dec. 8th. You are comparing apples to oranges. The primary driver of which format succeeds is for movie use. Despite the PS3 selling 200,000 units, the sales of BD movies hasn't increased much. Keep in mind, there were probably one or two people who bought the PS3 as a game machine, and don't use it for movies. Everyone who bought a Xbox add-on uses it just for movies.

I just love how people misinform themselves into a delusional state and don't bother to take into account the facts before reaching a conclusion.

WILL, thanks for restating what I wrote with even more detail. I am not so sure about your estimate of 2-3 years for introduction of triple layer HD-DVD as the patent has already been granted and I did not read anywhere that existing HD-DVD players would definitely NOT be able to read this extra layer. Logic seems to dictate that if the current laser can read 2 layers, it ought to be able to read 3 or 4 layers. Perhaps you can let me know where I can read up on this incompatibility issue you raise.

Only other thing to add is that the 2nd to last paragraph where you state 'Keep in mind ...' is rather confusingly worded.

The reason people are speculating that a triple layer HD-DVD (or a 4-7 layer Bluray disc) won't be backwards compatible with current machines is because the laser has to be able to refocus to read those extra layers. Further, the additional layers aren't a straight read as the first two. They are a measurement of various shifts in wavelength that are caused by a combination of all three layers. So mathematical manipulation of the laser read is required to get data off the additional layer(s). So there are two mechanisms needed to read these extra layers that aren't present on existing HD-DVD and Bluray players, a physical focus mechanism and then the mathematical algorithims needed to process the laser read.

It may not be physically possible to move the laser the required amount to refocus in existing players. They also don't currently have the software in place to control the refocus for extra layers. Existing equipment also doesn't have any of the algorithims needed to extract data from the extra layers. It's unknown whether existing decoders even have the processing power to handle all their current functions plus the additional math.

I think it highly unlikely that either side would put enough engineering effort into the old equipment to make it backwards compatible. More likely, you would just need to buy a new machine. There are still alot of unknowns involved in using these extra layers as the technology is still in development. Both sides may have patents, but you don't actually have to have the physical product in hand to receive a patent. They could design it on paper, patent it, and then never successfully be able to create it in the real world. However, both companies do have prototypes of discs with the extra layers. They also claim to have prototype drives in prototype PC's that can read the extra layers (how well remains to be seen).

I personally think they have at least another year to work out the bugs and standardize the technology. Then probably another year to get hardware makers to start producing machines that can use them (and get manufacturers who can manufacture them). If they hit any snags along the way, it might be another year on top of that.

And sorry if my last paragraph was confusing, but I was being sarcastic. I think most people bought the PS3 as a gaming platform and aren't flocking to it as a movie platform. So I don't think high PS3 sales mean every single person is out buying 10 BD movies. However, for every X-Box addon sold, you know people are out buying movies for it (because that is all it can do is play movies). So just because the PS3 outsold the X-Box addon in a three week window doesn't mean BD is seeing a higher adoption rate.

is good

Region Free HD-DVD all the way for me. Sony can takes its arrogant PS3 & shove it.

There is also a good chance that neither format will survive. From a pure marketing standpoint there seems to be only minimal interest in Blu-Ray or HD-DVD. By far the bulk of the population of the U.S. are not taking full advantage of the higher resolution possibilities for the current standard DVD format, meaning HDMI or RGB, few even use the S-Video connector; most are connected using standard composite video. Where is the interest in paying a premium for a DVD format for when they do not use the full abilities of the current DVD standard format?

The market will make the determination and it could well be neither.

You forgot Blu-ray's biggest consumer advantage--its name.

HD-DVD is all consonants, totally un-wordlike. It's five syllables when spoken and tech alphabet soup in print.

Blu-ray is two cool sounding syllables. It's readily remembered, quick to make an impression of coolness, and as easy to look at as it is to say.

End of story...

Try this one on for size:

They will both LOSE. The Chinese have come up with their own format which is reportedly MUCH better than BR or HD, are producing $60 players, and have their entire industry behind it. Their entire industry happens to include something like 90% of the DVD player manufacturing capacity of the WORLD.

Here is the wake-up call: China is in a position to dictate what format will be used. They make 90% of the machines, have the technical ability, and now have their own market. The implications for other industries are pretty amazing.

-Randy

Look at Betamax and VHS. The winner isn't always the better option just whoever markets themselves better and forces the hand of the public.

Interesting comment regarding the Chinese and their proprietary format.

The other elephant in the room is the holographic storage system developed by Inphase (Lucent). The media is currently expensive but it can store 300gb. In five years they are expecting 1.6 terabytes. If the battle between blue-ray and HD-DVD continues long enough, perhaps holographic technology will have a chance to be the next standard. Then you could sell whole collections of movies on one disc...

An important element that most people don't mention is the potential that each format has for sophisticated interactivity. I've read somewhere that HD-DVD uses more of a markup language than a fully capable programming language like Java. I'd like to hear the full story on this because the real future of the medium may be in it's ability to provide truly innovative interactive capabilities.

Steve

i think that blue ray will become more important, but i also belive thaht in future sony and microsoft will have to make together a unit to read, burn and everything else in the same unit. dont think so?

bout will win

pepe

HD DVD - cheaper to manufacture and no region coding.

The war is over.

I think it will depend on how much of a butt-head Sony is going to be. Sony seems to be very good at shooting itself in the foot. Can anyone say Betamax?

I agree that Blu-ray is the superior technology. But the two things that will drive who wins the war is cost and availability of movies. No one except early adapters and people who like high end audio-video components are going to pay $1000 for a DVD player. Even the author of this article said that was too much for him. Most people will buy the one that costs less and has the most movies available.

Anyone remember the old VCR format wars between Betamax and VHS? Betamax was technically superior but VHS won out because of cost. Apparently Sony didn't learn anything from that one either.

What will be will be. Fussing over the issue is of no use; as usual the markerplace and content availability will decide.

Well, I hate to take the discussion here, but Wicked pictures announced yesterday that they will start releasing porn onto HD-DVD. The article made it sound like it would be exclusive to HD-DVD, at least for the time being.

It's sort of sad, but I think this could have a pronounced effect. Typically, whatever format the porn industry backs (VHS over Beta, DVD over Divx, and now HD-DVD over Bluray) typically wins the format war. People needs there porn I guess...now in hi-def.

This is what Dillon wrote above -

Yes, ill admit it, Blu-ray has a bigger storage capacity. But do you know why Blu-ray has a bigger storage capacity? Because their codec is worse and they need that much space to fit a single Blu-ray movie.

And I think he is full of it. Period. Learn your sh.... before you speak butthead.

Snoman,

Dillian was incorrect in his post. A single Bluray disc currently has less capacity than a single HD-DVD disc. (Bluray max is SS-DL @ 50 GB and HD-DVD max is DS-DL @ 60 GB). He was correct that most Bluray releases use MPEG2 which requires more storage space than the same film using VC-1 by about a 3:1 ratio (MPEG2 needs 3X the space).

If you disagree that MPEG2 needs 3X more space than VC-1, then you might be the one who needs to do more research.

Wow, this is awesome. Here is my 2¢:

Who cares? I have to agree with the comment made several posts earlier. Give it a year and in the meantime, get yourself a $69 Samsung 1080i up-converting DVD player and a $20 HDMI cable. I just set one of these up on a 50" Plasma and it looks pretty good. It will surely hold me over until this ridiculous format battle is resolved.

To buy anything now, Blu Ray or HD DVD, is a coin toss. Even if you happen to be lucky enough to have purchased the "winner", your 1st generation player will likely be inferior to newer, less expensive versions when this is all sorted out.

Sitting here arguing about which one is going to win is pointless. No one knows and anyone could be wrong.

Dave Dee wrote (and Will parroted similar crap):

[QUOTE]
Blu Ray does NOT currently have a Capacity Advantage over HD-DVD. If you carefully examine Specifications for both Formats, you will see that Blu Ray is only capable of single sided disks.
[/QUOTE]

This is garbage. While definitely harder to manufacture, Blu-ray is capable of two-sided discs, but there's no value in it. You need the capacity on one side - if the user has to flip the disc, you could more easily and cheaply just ship two discs. Consumers hate two-sided discs (no label, for one thing, fingerprints for another), and authoring is much more complex if you want any of the bonus features to be accessible at any point in the movie.

No matter how you spin it, Blu-ray has 66% capacity advantage today, and is likely to have a greater advantage in the future (at least for recordable discs).

[QUOTE]
1. HP (the top PC maker) despite being a Founding Blu Ray company and on the BD Group has just announced a $100 HD DVD add on to the PCs.
[/QUOTE]

It was $100 for one day. It's now $249. And it's a reader only. HD-DVD has very poor prospects for burning, which makes it a far less compelling technology for PC use.

Will wrote:

[QUOTE]
The sales numbers for the Xbox HD-DVD addon were only for the period of Nov. 8 through Nov. 25. The Sony numbers were from Nov. 17th to Dec. 8th. You are comparing apples to oranges.
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Doesn't matter. No matter what dates you choose the PS3 will be way, way ahead, since it's selling out everywhere and will likely continue to for months to come.

I'm sorry, but once again, misinformation is being presented. Bluray cannot be manufactured as a double-sided disc. It currently is not in the Bluray spec and no one in the world as any equipment to manufacture such a disc.

It may not even be possible because of the configuration of the disc (layers closer to the surface, plus the addition of a hard coat) would make a double sided disc thicker than what the current spec allows for. So if they were able to do this at some future point, it wouldn't be backwards compatible with existing players (including the PS3). Instead of taking this route, I think Sony would spend their development effort working towards adding more than two layers to a single side, which has always been their focus anyway.

So again, if you limit the discussion to what is in each camps current specifications, and what can be physically produced today, a single HD-DVD can have more capacity than a single Bluray disc.

I do agree that it would currently be cheaper to release two single sided HD-DVD discs, instead of a double-sided disc. The double sided disc is very difficult (thus expensive) to manufacture. The same is true for regular DVD. DVD-18 discs are difficult to make, results in the creation of many "coasters", and so very few releases have used DVD-18. The same will probably be true of DS HD-DVD discs. A few seasons of popular shows many eventually utilize them, but for most releases, you will probably just get two discs, like you do with many DVD's. The same goes for Bluray. Two disc sets are released because it is cheaper to have two 25 GB discs, than one 50 GB disc. Bluray only uses 50 GB discs on movies that won't fit on a single 25 GB disc (and the only reason they won't fit is because Sony insists on using the old MPEG2 codec).

I think consumers are used to 2-disc sets by now, and there have been no backlash from the practice.

I'm also curious why you say that HD-DVD has very poor prospects for burning. True, a Bluray burner is cheaper currently than a HD-DVD burner. However, Toshiba and NEC both offer HD-DVD burners. They have had them for almost a year and they have been used in commercial applications very successfully. There were problems with disc production of HD-DVD-R's (that's a mouthful of letters), but I think that has been ironed out.

What are the poor prospects for HD-DVD burners?

I think whatever the porn industry decides upon will be the clear standard.. It was, after all, the porn industry that killed laser disc and beta max... So really, whatever the porn industry jumps to first will be the winner..

One guy mentioned that blue-ray only has one layer, but according to blu-ray.com/info/ its future proof for 100-200 mega bytes, which means it can hold 4-8 layers!

Finally...someone whom I can agree with. So you aren't a media shill and true journalism lives on somewhere.

The fact that we are still driving dirty smelly petrol diven cars shows that an inferior technology can beat all comers - when the powers that be back it.
China`can give us 720P in a $90 machine -seems better to me

I have about 100 movies on regular DVD. The sound and picture are both very good for me.

Now I am being told that a new and improved format that will have so much better picture and sound quality is coming.

Picture quality improvement that I may not even really notice.

Sound quality improvement that may not be discernable.

While there may be technical improvements in the media, how much of a diference does it really make when you sit down in your home and watch a movie??

The comment about the guy dismissing the wife's reaction to the mention of a $1000 movie player must be single.

This is not about technical specs. It is all about marketing. Get the public to buy, buy, buy.

That $1000 price point has got to fall a long way before a big section of the public will look at it.

It will win eventually, because we all want more storage and speed, but it will be a long war and by then it will be Purple Ray version 3. People who have DVD players and a library of videos will not jump on the Blue Ray wagon just so they can repurchase what they already own.

Companies will not update their software or hardware. Since by your prediction the software will be on Blue Ray disks and will require drives to load/run the updates. Did you ever hear of OS2? They didn't ask themselves, would people be willing to spend more money just to do the same thing they can already do?

You probably don't remember when computer companies kept coming out with faster every few months. People quit buying because they were angry that their one year old computer, they paid more for, ran at half the speed of the new ones. So they were going to wait for a slow down in the rate at which the technology was advancing before they would buy again.

A lot of individuals will over spend to be on the leading edge of technology, but big business will not. So, for you and the other 193,000 out there, keep playing games, the rest of us will wait a few years until the prices are reasonable.

You can watch a contest or you can sit around arguing over whose going to win and why and pay no attention to what's actually happening. Sony thought they had the best VCR technology. Problem is is that the advantages their system had (more accurate editing,etc.) was a characteristic that didn't mean squat to 99.9% of the users. They completely missed the point that VCRs were primarily going to be be sold with content already on them, and recording a movie from OTA or cable sources involved NO editing.
SONY had envisioned a fantasy world and then they arrogantly kept their manufacturing to themselves and
VHS equipment beat the pants off SONY's overpriced
gadget. Increased capacity means nothing unless it actually will make a visible difference. So far, I've heard NO pursuasive argument that leads me to believe that it makes any difference here. The problem that I see with Blu-Ray is that its players are less reliable because the manufacturing tolerances are too tight to stand up under heavy use, and the discs are also more complcated to build and will have to cost more than HD DVD. Then there's the only important
factor - consumer acceptance. The "best" technology dosn't always win in the market because it's often simply not cost effective from the consumer's point of view. In other words, it really isn't "best."
In my view , all things visual are moving towards 1080p. As long as both formats support that high def
format more or less equally well, either might win. Or both might win, especially if players are produced
with dual format capabilities, as several manufacturers have been hinting. But that would be one lousy situation.

Wake up... Blu-Ray is dead.....

Sony fail at all their formats.... Betamax... UMD anyone.

Waste ya money on Blu-Ray if you want too... we will all chuckle when it dies and you stuck with a $1000 paperweight... hahhaa

God people it doesnt really matter that F**king much does it? I mean wow HD Dvd does this and Blu ray does that. They will both probably be around for at least the next couple of years until something better is found. So until then stop fucking arguing

Interesting article, and very one sided.
I'm a techie junky and looking forward to my HD upgrade. But i won't be forced into one by a company that sticks it into a console.
I was at a home fair last week and saw DVD, HD-DVD and Blu-ray, side by side. Firstly, i was amazed at the differnce between DVD and HD, blurry comes to mind. But i was even more supprised that HD-DVD looked sharper and clearer than blu-ray. If this is the shape of things to come, i will either demand that Blu-ray looks better, or go with HD-DVD.
I want what looks best, not what i'm forced to buy.
This is the reason why i will never buy the new PS3.

I really think Blu-ray discs are going to flop miserably. My proof? Lets see....Betamax, Mini-discs, Atrac3s, memory sticks. While Sony comes up with great ideas, their marketing and product placement is terrible. The result: A gagillion flopped formats.

Plus, you underestimate the stupidity of the average consumer. People are going to say "Dur....I need an HD-DVD format Player for my HDTV!" The name is just intuitive like that.

I think SONY should stay in their own realm of superb big screen TVs, and stay away from pushing formats, and exploding laptop batteries.

Who cares about the players....I'm waiting for one that records and plays.

atarri is one that one with less technolagy

I couldn't agree more that the latest and the Greatest of Media formats and Media players are vastly over-rated!
Blu-ray Disc are too freaking expensive! HD-DVD is the player for this format backwards compatible with my DVD collection if not I'll stick with my DVD player thank you very much!

I admit DVDs are rather old but they beat the heck outta VHS any day!
If I do decide to get HD DVD player I'll wait until it's cheaper!

Buying a PS3 only to play Blu Ray Discs is stupid and dorky! It's a video game console!
The fact that Blu Ray is in PS3 is probably the reason for the absurd price-tag! PS3's games are absurdly pricey too! That's another reason for me a gamer and a movie fan not too buy! Sony is obviously forgetting that not everyone is a fanboy/fangirl who would get the latest and the greatest for bragging rights!

In the end it's all about the consumer's choice!

VHS VS Beta war was won by several factors, first: price of VHS vs Beta, second: Storage capactiy of VHS over Beta, third: Porn industry backed the cheaper and higer storage medium. That being said, Beta was far superior in video quality than VHS.
If we as consumers take anything into consideration over this war of HD and Blu-Ray should be this, would you really want to re-buy all the DVD titles you currently own now for a newer format that will cost between 10-15 more per movie, upgrade your DVD player for a more expensive one? Sounds like everyone is taking a hit in the pocket for media that may be obsolete in about 15 years, and may have to change once again to a newer format. Imagine when movies will just cease to be a physical medium and become strictly 0's and 1's being drawn across the LAN lines going to residential homes. Why have a medim player when you can stream the audio and visuals directly to any viewable monitor or projector without the disk. Just my two cents.

i just hate the damn color of the hd dvd box...F***ING MAROON?!?!?!

Its funny to look back and see people making predictions and promises about why one format will win over the other...

in the end BLU-RAY Wins!

BLU RAY WINS

[QUOTE]
Rickyban:

"nteresting article, and very one sided.
I'm a techie junky and looking forward to my HD upgrade. But i won't be forced into one by a company that sticks it into a console.
I was at a home fair last week and saw DVD, HD-DVD and Blu-ray, side by side. Firstly, i was amazed at the differnce between DVD and HD, blurry comes to mind. But i was even more supprised that HD-DVD looked sharper and clearer than blu-ray. If this is the shape of things to come, i will either demand that Blu-ray looks better, or go with HD-DVD.
I want what looks best, not what i'm forced to buy.
This is the reason why i will never buy the new PS3."
[/QUOTE]

Oh really? So you bought Beta and Laser Disc players? How's the support on those been? Err.

Indeed, Blu Ray wins and anyone with common sense would have seen it would win.